Heading into the 2020 election, Democrats were favored to not only capture the presidency but also win back the Senate and retain their sizable majority in the House. Much of that came down to the overall national environment, which appeared to be pretty favorable to Democrats, as they held a 7.3-point lead in FiveThirtyEight’s final polling average of congressional polls.
Yet even though Democrats did win the presidency — and eventually the Senate — their grip on the House actually slipped, as Republican gains meant the Democrats’ majority fell from a 32-seat advantage1 to just a 9-seat edge after the election.
So what happened? CONTINUED
Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight