When Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia flipped to the Democratic side in the 2008 presidential election, it seemed like the start of a long-lasting shift. A Democratic Party increasingly synonymous with people of color, college graduates and urbanites appeared destined to win in states with growing, well-educated, racially diverse metropolises like Charlotte, Denver, the Raleigh-Durham area and the northern Virginia suburbs outside Washington, D.C.
That’s exactly what happened in Colorado and Virginia, which have become reliably blue in most statewide elections. But not North Carolina. …
With Democrats carrying Arizona and Georgia in the 2020 presidential election for the first time in decades, it’s worth thinking about North Carolina. Arizona and Georgia are also seeing major demographic shifts — either or both states could be the next Colorado or Virginia. But even if Democrats win one or both U.S. Senate seats in Tuesday’s runoffs in Georgia, North Carolina should remain a cautionary tale for Democrats: States like Georgia that are becoming more urban, more educated and less white don’t always turn into reliable parts of Blue America. CONTINUED
Perry Bacon Jr., FiveThirtyEight