How Biden Won: Six Hard Truths

How did Joe Biden win the presidential election? And what lessons does his victory hold for how he should govern?

Early attempts to interpret the results of the election were hampered by the slowness of the counting—the major news outlets didn’t even call the presidential race until the Saturday after the election—and by other 2020 idiosyncrasies. In particular, the exit polls, which in a normal election year can help explain how different political and demographic subgroups voted, were conducted abnormally because of the pandemic. And the pre-election polls, which normally also aid in interpreting election results, were dramatically off this year.

My aim in this piece is to offer an overview—based on an analysis of the data available—of the electoral mathematics behind Biden’s win. CONTINUED

Bruce Gyory, The Bulwark


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