… After studying 2016 election polling, the American Association for Public Opinion Research reported that it found no evidence of “shy” Trump voters. More recent studies challenged that, suggesting such voters might exist. Survey firms that correctly predicted the 2016 election have argued that they did so because of how they dealt with pollster-shy voters.
We fielded an experiment designed to measure whether prospective voters feel social pressures when telling pollsters which candidate they plan to support; social psychology research shows that can bias polls. CONTINUED
Ryan L. Claassen (Kent State) & John Barry Ryan (Stony Brook), Monkey Cage