A growing theory for polling error in the 2016 and 2020 elections is nonresponse bias along social trust levels. Low social trust Americans have long been underrepresented in surveys, but historically this hasn’t mattered for pre-election polls because social trust was uncorrelated with the outcome of interest in elections — presidential vote choice. This new theory posits the trust/vote relationship changed starting with Donald Trump on the ballot in 2016, and thus lower response rates among low-trust Americans now present a serious problem for pollsters. CONTINUED
Alexander Agadjanian