… We developed a forecast of each state’s presidential vote based primarily on three fundamental factors: each state’s presidential vote in 2016; state economic conditions through June of the election year, and state presidential approval ratings based on surveys conducted in June and July of this year. …
If Biden wins Arizona as currently projected, our model will have correctly predicted 49 out of 50 states plus Washington, D.C. Based on current votes, still being counted in some states, Georgia was the only state our model missed. CONTINUED
Peter K. Enns & Julius Lagodny (Cornell), Monkey Cage