… Because they focused so much on campaigns and candidates, much of the election forecasting industry missed what was happening in America. In May, 23% of voters believed their personal finances were getting better. That grew to 27% by mid-October and 29% right before the election. That’s the same trend that helped Barack Obama get reelected eight years ago and it almost certainly helped Donald Trump close the gap this year. Data also showed that pessimism about the pandemic was declining.
Those two data points should have caused forecasters to question the more extreme projections of a big “Blue Wave.” But most didn’t see it because they thought the elections were all about what the campaigns said and did. That disconnect is exactly what I saw on election night this year. …
Instead of flooding the zone with a deluge of last-minute horse-race polls, public pollsters should offer more data designed to help forecasters and politicians understand America. Importantly, these should be about attitudes and perceptions rather than policies and campaign positions. We need to frame questions in the language of the American people rather than the language of American politics. CONT.
Scott Rasmussen, Deseret News