… On average, the polls appear to have been off by about 2.5 to 3 percentage points this year. The absolute error in polls is not necessarily larger than in previous years. But, crucially, both public and private polls continued to overestimate Democratic vote share in Florida and in Midwestern states. These inaccuracies persisted despite many methodological improvements in state polls since 2016, including weighting by education, sampling based on the voter file and fielding more surveys closer to Election Day to guard against late shifts in the electorate. CONT.
Chris Warshaw (GWU) & Emily Thorson (Syracuse), Monkey Cage
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