‘Guesses upon guesses’: Polls fall short again in 2020, raising red flags for future contests

… The underestimation of Trump’s turnout and support in many places, after similar issues in 2016, has raised again questions about the reliance of campaigns, the press and the public on surveys to shape the race. That in turn has prompted new questioning of the bedrock principle among political strategists that campaigns can divine public opinion before the votes are counted with enough money and talent.

Adding to the prominence of polling issues is an emerging prognostication industry built on public surveys, with news organizations and universities investing heavily in polling, and aggregation websites promising election predictions that can offer a deceptive level of confidence. CONT.

Michael Scherer, Washington Post


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