After Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016, the 2020 election became a referendum on both Trump’s first term and the pollsters and forecasters who appeared to underestimate his chances four years ago. That first question hasn’t yet been settled. But many were quick to declare a verdict on the second.
But if it was too early to declare a winner Wednesday — and of course it was, Trump’s personal preferences not withstanding — it was also too early to declare a major failure of polling. The data we have now are incomplete: We don’t know enough to reach a final verdict on the accuracy of individual pollsters or on the polls as a whole. CONT.
David Byler, Washington Post
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