Biden leads, Trump needs Election Day surge to win

Joe Biden heads into Election Day preferred by voters who have already cast their ballots early. President Trump has a lead among those who plan to show up on November 3. So will Biden’s lead hold up? If we trot out the old horserace analogy, Biden has a lead, but we still don’t know how long the track is. We need to see how big that Election-Day vote will be.

So we took our baseline state model estimates from our initial polling, which sums to Biden holding an Electoral College lead heading into Election Day, and also estimated what it would take for each candidate to ultimately win. CONT.

CBS News


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