Much of the thinking about the outcome of next Tuesday’s election has been binary: Does Joe Biden hang onto his lead in the polls and win, or can President Trump mount a successful comeback, threading the same needle that enabled him to win 30 states with 306 Electoral College votes last time? Another binary question: Will Republicans keep their Senate losses down to just a seat or two, remaining at 51 or 52 seats, or will Democrats score a net gain of three or four seats, emerging with the barest of majorities?
But it is hard to look closely at the presidential election and not see that, given how little time is left, the odds of a big Biden win are higher than those of a Trump come-from-behind victory. Which brings us to the growing body of evidence on the congressional-district and statewide level showing that Trump’s political problems are metastasizing and having a strong drag on down-ballot Republicans. CONT.
Charlie Cook