Key Points
• Senate elections have become increasingly tied to presidential voting results.
• This shows up in this year’s polling, as the margins for states’ presidential and Senate races are closely linked.
• An analysis of these polling data suggest that Democrats are likely to achieve a net gain of between one and eight seats with the most likely result a net gain of five seats, enough to give them a small Senate majority. CONT.
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball