Most of the uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of the Black vote on the presidential election this year is focused on turnout. Although President Donald Trump’s campaign has made efforts to reach out to Black voters, the historical record and current data show it is unlikely that the percentage of the Black vote going to Trump will vary much from the low percentages Republican presidential candidates have received in previous election cycles.
A key issue relating to the Black vote will be the percentage of eligible Black voters who turn out to vote. This could be of crucial importance in swing states where Black turnout could be a deciding factor in the election outcome. CONT.
Frank Newport, Gallup