The economy has been a major factor in determining the outcome of presidential elections throughout U.S. history. That will clearly continue to be the case in this 2020 presidential election cycle, although I certainly think there are unusual factors challenging the economy for salience in voters’ minds this year. Additionally, the perceived state of the national economy and the candidates’ economic proposals are likely going to have their most important effects on turnout among supporters of the two major candidates — and not so much in terms of actually changing voters’ minds. CONT.
Frank Newport, Gallup