New York Times data journalist extraordinaire, Nate Cohn, used Twitter last week to announce the Times was “switching to likely voters.” That is, their polls would now reflect the opinions of voters likely to turnout in November.
The Times is hardly alone, so it’s a propitious moment to trot out one of my favorite polling iconoclasms: focusing on likely voters can be a misleading sham. …
Our goal shouldn’t be finding which individuals are and are not going to vote, but rather constructing a sample that reflects the likely electorate, which includes some more, and some less likely, voters.
Open the vault to consider an example from a decade ago, when Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) faced a tough race. CONT.
Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill