… Trump is trailing, not because he’s losing his 2016 base, but because he has never expanded beyond it.
This week I dug into the most recent national poll from Pew research (7/27-8/2) and compared it with the results of their 2016 validated vote survey (basically, a post-election exit poll that uses official voting records). What you find is that Trump is hitting his 2016 share of the vote among most demographic groups. But, he’s not grown beyond those voters. Instead, it’s Biden who has improved markedly on Clinton’s 2016 performance. CONT.
Amy Walter, Cook Political Report