Key Points
• Two factors that historically have been helpful in forecasting presidential elections — the power of incumbency and the state of the economy — may be less useful in this year’s election, both because of long-term changes in American politics and the current public health crisis.
• A forecasting model based on evaluations of the incumbent president may be a better fit for this election.
• This incumbent accountability model makes Donald Trump an underdog, but gives him about a 30% chance of winning based on his current approval rating.
• However, he needs to improve his approval rating significantly to better position himself for a second term, based on history. CONT.
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball