Here’s how NBC News is working to improve its state polling in 2020

In 2016, the polls were more right than wrong. The final national surveys had Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump ahead by an average of 3 points; Clinton ended up winning the popular vote by 2 points. But some state polling missed the mark badly, especially in Midwest and Rust Belt states. Trump narrowly carried Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where some long-respected state polls had shown Clinton with a narrow lead.

One of the most prominent explanations for 2016’s polling whiffs was that these state polls surveyed more college-educated voters than the actual share of college-educated voters in the population. As a result, they were missing participants with lower education levels.

But last fall, NBC News’ state polling partner — Marist College’s Institute for Public Opinion — conducted an experiment with Edison Research by polling Kentucky’s competitive gubernatorial race and reached a different conclusion: Education appears to be a piece of a bigger geographic puzzle with how pollsters build their samples. CONT.

Mark Murray & Carrie Dann, NBC News


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