Key Points
• President Trump’s position has been perilously weak for a month and a half.
• With Joe Biden’s national lead around eight to 10 points, there is a possibility that he could compete for some usually Republican states.
• We are moving seven states from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.
• Our current ratings represent something of a hedge between a Trump comeback and Biden maintaining or expanding his large national lead.
• We also are moving the Missouri gubernatorial race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. CONT.
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings
The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack
Unfair elections lead to politicians who appreciate unfairness, which leads to more unfairness.
It’s absurd that it takes such low Trump support in 1 or a few battleground states (when his support in national polls always has been low) to finally “make” Trump appear to be an underdog.
It’s absurd that it took a 14 point lead in national polls to finally “make” Trump appear to be an underdog.
With the current system, another election could come down to the statewide winner in 1, 2, or 3 states, even though most American voters seem to clearly support one candidate more than others.
NationalPopularVote.com