John A. Tures, LaGrange College
When President Donald Trump struggled down the ramp at the West Point graduation ceremony, it was no big deal to me. It shouldn’t be a big deal to anyone, except that the centerpiece of the Trump reelection effort involves inaccurately portraying his opponent as having dementia. It’s a strategy that is helping contribute to Trump’s big losses among older voters, and he needs to change course immediately, to stop the bleeding.
In 2016, Donald J. Trump shocked his opponent Hillary Clinton by winning the Electoral College, despite losing the popular vote. But a major advantage he held was among voters who are 65 or older, prevailing with this age demographic by 52%-45%, according to CNN exit polls. Indeed, his now deleted tweet from The Villages in Florida (where a man chants “white power”) was designed to show his popularity with senior citizens in the Sunshine State.
But it’s not gone well for the president heading into the 2020 campaign. According to The Hill, it’s Joe Biden who has boosted his standing among the oldest voters. “The former vice president has increased his support among voters 65 and older by 9 percentage points since the last Hill-HarrisX survey and is now leading Trump among this group by 2 percentage points, with 47 percent supporting Biden in the general election match up and 45 percent supporting Trump.”
Some of this is due to Trump’s response to the coronavirus. He delayed a travel ban, then finally instituted one for China, but it was for Chinese nationals alone, not American tourists. Waiting until March to finally declare one for Europe was devastating (and then to exempt Britain, a hotspot was highly questionable). His decision not to lead by example on the mask issue, push a widely discredited drug, pressure governors into reopening prematurely by taking the side of armed protesters, and then to hold dangerous rallies, worried senior citizens, and worsened his public standing. Comments by other Republicans about senior citizens needing to “sacrifice themselves” for the economy tainted both the GOP brand and its “pro-life” standing.
But the rest of it has come from Trump’s decision to mock Biden for the tiniest verbal slip-up. Even if Trump wasn’t known for his roaming speeches and odd tweets, this would have been ill-advised. Seniors are proud people, who have been flooded with messages that mock their mental acuity, and they are angry with these frequently undeserved slights. It has made Biden into a more sympathetic candidate, and made it harder for Trump to claim “he’s one of them,” among older voters, even as he doesn’t rule out big cuts to Medicare and Social Security.
Republicans like to point to a Zogby poll where 55% of respondents feel Biden has dementia, though fewer swing voters think so. A Monmouth poll looking at both Trump and Biden shows that 52% are very or somewhat confident that Biden has the mental and physical stamina to be president. Only 45% of those polled feel the same way about Trump. A June 24 Politico/Morning Consult poll reveals that 40% of voters felt the President was in good health, while only 39% said the same of the former vice president. By repeatedly raising the issue of Biden’s stamina, Trump is only leading voters to question his own mental health.
To his credit, Trump won over senior citizens in the GOP primary and general election four years ago by not calling for big cuts in Social Security and Medicare, as his opponents were. And though his campaign ripped Hillary Clinton for allegedly fainting, that wasn’t the same as picking on Biden for his age. Should Trump continue to stumble in policymaking decisions, and continue accusing Biden of mental problems, he’ll be the one facing retirement in November.
John A. Tures (@JohnTures2) is a professor of political science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia. The views expressed here are his own. He can be reached at: jtures@lagrange.edu