The Polls Weren’t Far off in 2016. They Aren’t Wrong Now, Either.

Over the last few weeks, my political conversations have started to change. They now often lead off with a question like “Can President Trump turn this election around?” or “What would it take for him to win a second term?” That’s quite a shift from just a few months ago, when Joe Biden’s lead over Trump was in the 4-to-7-point range and the incumbent’s approval ratings were in the mid-40s. Biden’s advantage today is between 8 and 14 points, while Trump’s job-approval ratings are now hovering around 40 percent, with his personal unfavorables far higher than his challenger’s. CONT.

Charlie Cook

Recent polls: Trump vs. Biden

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