… Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump in the large majority of national polls in 2016. However, the magnitude of that lead varied considerably over time. This variability may reflect that fact that in an open seat contest like 2016, the choices of voters can be influenced more by the candidates’ campaigns and the changing news background. In contrast, Joseph Biden’s lead over Donald Trump has been far more consistent in 2020. This consistency may reflect the fact that Donald Trump is now running as an incumbent with a proven track record. CONT.
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Presidential polls: 2020 | 2016
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