In modern political history, an incumbent’s job approval has been the single best measure of his reelection prospects. If this holds true in 2020, the current outlook for President Trump is bleak, and his ability to turn around his situation will steadily decline as election day nears. …
The stability of the relationship between the approval ratings of incumbent presidents and their re-elect numbers is consistent with the conventional wisdom that elections are almost always about incumbents. An incumbent with consistently low approval ratings has really only one option, which is to shift the focus of the election to the challenger. CONT.
William A. Galston, Brookings Institution
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