… The truth is that we really don’t know how recent events will alter the contours of this year’s presidential race between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. History merely provides a road map with a number of different paths of how the public will react. …
Across all the different elections I looked at, civil unrest and high crime tend to be blamed on the president. From 1968 to 1972 and again from 1988 to 1994, the incumbent’s approval rating on handling crime or law and order was at about 40% or below.
You can see how incumbency is unhelpful by seeing how things shift. CONT.
Harry Enten, CNN
The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack