How Much Trump Could Help (Or Harm) Down-Ballot Republicans In November

Looking ahead to November, the presidential race could decide more than just who the next president is. It could also determine which party controls the Senate or House or even a state’s legislature. And that’s because of something political science calls the “coattail effect,” which is when the popularity of a candidate at the top of the ticket — we’re most interested in presidential coattails — boosts the fortunes of candidates from the same party lower down on the ballot. CONT.

Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight


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