Enough of the talk about the possibility of another split between electoral and popular votes for president, which would be the third in 20 years. Here’s a better challenge for 2020 election aficionados: First, if Republicans only hold onto one thing, is it more likely to be the White House or their majority in the Senate? Second—keeping in mind that Democrats need a net gain of three Senate seats if they win the White House, four if they don’t—which is more likely: Democrats picking up just one or two seats, coming up short again, or gaining at least five seats (Republicans breaking even or gaining seats is very unlikely)? That’s a tough call, since at this point, I’d set the betting line at three or four seats, right on the cusp. CONT.
Charlie Cook
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