Key Points
• Despite — or perhaps because of — the relatively high share of the vote third party candidates received in 2016, we expect the two major parties to have a better showing in 2020.
• Voters generally feel better about their major party nominees this year than they did in 2016, leaving third party options with less of a raison d’etre.
• The field of third party candidates this year doesn’t seem especially strong, and even when prominent names have launched third party bids recently, they’ve struggled to gain traction — even in their home states.
• The public health crisis could make it harder for third party candidates to get on some state ballots.
• Rep. Justin Amash’s (L, MI-3) run for president prompts us to change the rating in his now-open House seat; we discuss that change as well as the GOP’s strong showing in the CA-25 House special election at the end of this article. CONT.
Kyle Kondik & J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Libertarian/Green Party progress in getting on state ballots
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