The last time an incumbent president lost reelection — George H.W. Bush, in 1992 — an “it’s the economy, stupid” campaign theme took him down. Unemployment then was hovering around 7.5%.
In the calamitous spring of 2020, that sounds like a long-lost boomtime. The Labor Department last week reported unemployment at 14.7%, with 20 million jobs lost in April. Administration economists warn US output may plummet at a 40% annual rate in the second quarter.
Those staggering measures of economic suffering do not guarantee that President Donald Trump will meet the same one-term fate as Bush, who lost to Bill Clinton. But they underscore the uphill fight Trump faces, and explain his abrupt shift from coronavirus containment to economic reopening. CONT.
John Harwood, CNN
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