While 2020 may very well defy historical patterns, in elections over the past five decades an incumbent president's approval rating at ~200 days out has been a remarkably strong predictor of his ultimate vote share. Trump's current rating puts him in Carter & GHW Bush territory. pic.twitter.com/pyvZA1q6St
— Patrick Egan (@Patrick_J_Egan) April 25, 2020
A once in my lifetime chart: GOPers and Dems both agreeing to the expansion of the federal government in the economy!! The is lions laying down with the lambs, Ghostbusters end of the world stuff. https://t.co/BvQyc5KGTY
— Bill McInturff (@pollsterguy) April 25, 2020
Have 65+ shifted their vote Dem? Important Q w/some conflicting evidence. We need to…
— Alexander Agadjanian (@A_agadjanian) April 25, 2020
1. Hold pollster constant (changes could be due to diff's across pollster)
2. Compare to nat'l margins (changes could be nat'l environment becoming more D)
I do this across 7 pollsters here: https://t.co/XTCGNr3Gw8 pic.twitter.com/vIvgVdGWzo