Key Points
• Incumbent senators almost never lose reelection in presidential years when their party’s presidential candidate wins their state.
• Democrats need to net four seats to win an outright majority in the Senate and three seats to tie it. In the case of a Senate tie, the vice president casts the tie-breaking vote.
• Democrats’ magic number in the Senate realistically is three — if they net any more, all signs point to them winning the presidential election and, with it, the tie-breaking Senate vote. CONT.
Seth Moskowitz, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Crystal Ball Senate ratings
