… When the best-case scenario predicts 100,000 to 240,000 deaths, the pandemic reminds us just how important it is who holds the reins of power. This is especially the case when one crucial question will be whether widespread suffering, panic and economic collapse will destabilize the American political system and the fragile consensus-based social order that underpins it, both of which have been under strain for some time. …
Lee Drutman, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, argued in an email that in the short term “there will be lots of blame to go around” and “that blame will almost certainly fuel even more partisan politics.” He believes that this anger “will change underlying attitudes toward government.” In the longer term, “assuming a moderate scenario of limited deaths and a short-term recession, and life back to normal within 2 years,” Drutman argued, “the impact will probably be minor.” But under a more extreme scenario — “more deaths, more economic devastation” — a more threatening outcome looms:
Times of high threat make us more open to authoritarian leadership, and economic and health emergencies create opportunities for authoritarian leaders to consolidate power in the name of fixing an emergency. In short: the worse the impact, the wider the range of possible futures, including some rather extreme scenarios. CONT.
Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times