Key Points
• The coronavirus public health crisis likely will lead to an economic downturn of unknown length and severity.
• Historically, second-quarter GDP growth in the election year is an important variable in predicting how an incumbent president will perform in the fall.
• A recession could seriously damage President Donald Trump’s reelection chances.
• However, we are in truly uncharted territory, and it’s unclear how the public will respond electorally to an economic downturn forced by a pandemic. CONT.
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball