Democrats named Biden, Sanders and Warren as their top picks 18 months ago. What did the primaries change?

Former vice president Joe Biden is now the presumptive Democratic nominee for president — after a primary involving months of campaigning, 28 Democratic candidates and over $1 billion in ads. Did any of that affect the result? Not much, our research suggests — but they weren’t meaningless. We’ll explain below. CONT.

Peter K. Enns & Jonathon P. Schuldt (Cornell), Monkey Cage