Political observers most frequently focus on presidential job approval and “horse race” questions to estimate the probability of an incumbent president’s getting reelected. But there is a broader context that forms the backdrop of incumbent reelection campaigns — what Americans are thinking and feeling about the world in general. At this juncture in the campaign, some parts of this broad context form a positive environment for President Donald Trump’s reelection effort, while others suggest a more challenging scenario. CONT.
Frank Newport, Gallup