The Public Opinion Context for Trump’s Reelection Bid

Political observers most frequently focus on presidential job approval and “horse race” questions to estimate the probability of an incumbent president’s getting reelected. But there is a broader context that forms the backdrop of incumbent reelection campaigns — what Americans are thinking and feeling about the world in general. At this juncture in the campaign, some parts of this broad context form a positive environment for President Donald Trump’s reelection effort, while others suggest a more challenging scenario. CONT.

Frank Newport, Gallup