The incident that served as the best predictor of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary actually happened in 2011.
That October, then-Gov. Rick Perry (R-Tex.) was leading the Republican field as the party tried to identify a candidate who could beat incumbent President Barack Obama. In a Washington Post-ABC News poll, Perry not only led in terms of support but was also seen as the candidate who had the best chance of winning the general election.
Then, during a debate, he tried to name the three government agencies he would eliminate as president. CONT.
Philip Bump, Washington Post