Many observers of the 2020 Democratic primary expect that the race will be much different as it moves to states with more diverse electorates. In particular, the expectation is that former Vice President Joe Biden will do better and former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg will do worse. After all, polls have consistently shown Biden leading among black voters and in the top two with Hispanic Democrats, and Buttigieg way behind with both groups.
But we should be careful not to overstate those assumptions or oversimplify the Democratic primary map. It’s not just that upcoming states are more racially diverse — they’re diverse in many other ways, too. CONT.
Perry Bacon Jr., FiveThirtyEight