After an extremely confusing week in the Democratic presidential primary, I have some bad news: New Hampshire might not resolve as much as you think.
That’s for two reasons. First, our study of past primaries finds that the bounces that result from New Hampshire are only about half as large as the ones that come out of Iowa. The bounces from Nevada and South Carolina tend to be even smaller. Instead, it’s an event like Super Tuesday that has the potential to produce a big bounce. CONT.
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight