Has Trump’s approval rating really shot up to 49 percent? Probably not.

Polls suggest that Donald Trump has weathered his impeachment remarkably well. The talk of the past couple of days among election prognosticators has been a Gallup poll that pegs Trump’s job approval at 49 percent, the highest Trump has ever registered in that poll. …

But is Trump really getting more popular? His recent polling gains have the hallmarks of a specific kind of polling error called differential nonresponse bias. CONT.

Jacob Long (Ohio State), Monkey Cage