The Iowa caucuses are very unpredictable — as is the aftermath

We have reached the end of the beginning of the 2020 primary process and the beginning of the end. …

It’s worth pointing out that, in addition to a revised system in which the Iowa Democratic Party will literally release multiple data points that could allow multiple campaigns to claim victory, recent caucus results have proved to be both unpredictable beforehand and not particularly predictive of future outcomes. In other words, the caucuses are important because they come first but may not tell us much about where things are heading. Yes, they also help winnow the field, but in the way lions winnow a pack of wildebeest: It’s not the strong ones who succumb. CONT.

Philip Bump, Washington Post