The Iowa caucuses are three weeks away. It’s worth taking a look at recent history to get a sense of how fluid the dynamic is in this period before live voters show up.
The answer is: It depends.
I looked at polling numbers three weeks out from the 2016, 2012, 2008, and 2004 cycles, then put those numbers against the actual results to show you the delta. CONT.
Jonathan V. Last, The Bulwark