Welcome to your first FiveThirtyEight Election Update of the 2020 primary cycle! This is a column in which we’ll talk about the primary race through the lens of our forecast model, which we released earlier this week. …
We don’t necessarily plan to publish an Election Update as a result of each single new poll, but Friday’s Selzer & Co. poll of the Iowa caucus, published by the Des Moines Register and CNN, warrants an exception and did have a somewhat material effect on the model. CONT.
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight