On its face, President Trump should have a pretty solid chance of reelection. He is an incumbent, and incumbents have a real advantage in presidential elections. Moreover, many economic indicators are positive. Last month, for example, the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment showed that Americans were more positive about the economy than they have been in six months.
But, betting markets put Trump’s odds at 50-50. He’s not a clear underdog, but he’s not in a strong position either. Part of the reason, as I’ve argued, is that he’s not getting much credit for the economy. His approval rating is much lower than we’d expect given how positively Americans feel about the economy.
And so the crucial question is whether his approval rating will increase. CONT.
John Sides (Vanderbilt), Monkey Cage