One’s confidence in predicting what’s likely to happen in the contest for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination correlates neatly with how closely one is looking at it.
In the abstract, it seems like a mess, with a field of more than two dozen trimmed down only partially and a leading pack that still overstuffs debate stages. Dig a little deeper, and things seem more certain: There are really four leading candidates: former vice president Joe Biden, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), and former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg. One of those four seems likely to secure the nomination, in decreasing order of likelihood.
But then you go a little deeper, and things become a mess again. CONT.
Philip Bump, Washington Post