A few weeks ago, Greg Koger examined Donald Trump’s approval rating by state and foresaw a difficult reelection effort for the President. Trump, Greg noted, had negative net approval in 30 states, and he didn’t have an easy path for even getting back to his slender victory margins in 2016. His campaign, and his party, would have to expend considerable resources to win even pretty reliably Republican states.
The piece left me curious, though — how well do approval ratings predict vote shares a year later? Any forecast a year away from an election is going to be imperfect, of course, but approval ratings are asking a fundamentally different question than the one voters will see on their ballots. CONT.
Seth Masket (U. of Denver), Mischiefs of Faction
