Analyzing Black Support for President Trump

President Donald Trump recently convened a “Black Voices for Trump” conference in Atlanta. In his speech to those assembled, Trump said: “We’re going to campaign for every last African-American vote in 2020. We’ve done more for African-Americans in three years than the broken Washington establishment has done in more than 30 years.” …

This theme echoes a message Trump delivered to black Americans during his first presidential campaign in the summer of 2016, when he declared: “At the end of four years, I guarantee you that I will get over 95% of the African-American vote. I promise you. Because I will produce.”

A prediction that Trump will gain 95% of the black vote is hyperbole, of course, but Trump clearly thinks he should be improving on the 8% vote among blacks he received three years ago. Based on what we see so far in terms of black ratings of the job Trump is doing as president, currently at 10%, I don’t see a high probability of that happening. CONT.

Frank Newport, Gallup