Since November 9, 2016, Democrats and pundits have contemplated the path back to Presidential victory in 2020: is it winning back white “working class” voters in the upper Midwestern states of Wisconsin & Michigan, or is it a candidate & platform that people of color actually want to vote for?
The latest round of this conversation is a New York Times/Siena poll report showing head-to-head matchups of President Trump vs. Vice-President Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren in the “all-important” swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina. Sample sizes per state ranged from 501 to 652 registered voters. The upshot of the story is that Trump is close to the Democratic candidates across these states, with Biden doing slightly better than Warren & Sanders.
But…what if the 2020 election outcome does not depend on the same swing states as 2016? CONT.
Gregory Koger (U. of Miami), Mischiefs of Faction