After Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016, there’s a saturating fear of projecting elections. Nearly three years into his presidency, and with one year left in his first term, there are multiple potential outcomes for the 2020 elections. But the scenarios aren’t created equal and don’t have the same chance of taking place, and they will have a profound impact on policy in the future. …
The analysis that follows is based on voter behavior in past elections and historical cycles, assessing the variables that are foreseeable in 2020 and conversations with pollsters working with candidates in both parties who agreed to speak candidly on the condition they not be named.
Following are four scenarios, in order of their likelihood: CONT.
Nathan L. Gonzales, Roll Call