… In every contested Democratic nomination race in this century, the winner of the Iowa caucuses has eventually won the nomination. That’s a measure of how much momentum candidates can earn, especially in this era of pervasive news coverage, from winning that kickoff contest. Conscious of that history, the leading 2020 candidates have courted Iowa more aggressively than any other state on the primary calendar, whether measured by time, money or staff.
But the increasing diversity of the Democratic electorate — compounded by the unique racial dynamics of this race — raises the prospect that the 2020 contest could end Iowa’s winning streak in predicting the eventual nominee. The reason is that while it’s eminently possible to win Iowa, a virtually all-white state, without appealing to black or other minority voters, it’s almost impossible to win the nomination without cross-racial appeal.
For that reason, some Democrats are looking to South Carolina, a heavily African American state that votes fourth on the primary calendar, as a better gauge of how the race will ultimately unfold than either Iowa, which votes February 3, or New Hampshire, which follows with the first primary eight days later. CONT.
Ronald Brownstein, CNN