Party loyalty—and, by extension, loyalty to the president of one’s party—is a powerful force on Capitol Hill. Thus, the safe bet is that few if any congressional Republicans will cast ballots to impeach President Trump. That should protect the president from removal by the GOP-led Senate, and even if House Democrats pass articles of impeachment, it would (as Greg Koger has noted) give proof to Trump’s claim that impeachment is a partisan “witch hunt.”
As I have written previously, however, the politics of impeachment are highly uncertain. It is possible for lawmakers, even members of the president’s party, to revise their opinions as circumstances change. …
What explains the likelihood of a Republican voting with Democrats to criticize the president? Using regression analysis, I tested a number of possible explanatory factors. CONT.
Matthew Green (Catholic U. of America), Mischiefs of Faction